This report covers the period from 2/28/2007 to 3/22/2007
Executive summary
- With the exception of localized areas in central and southern Mozambique affected by weather shocks, households are generally food secure throughout the country. Many households have food reserves from the good 2005/06 harvests, and prices are generally affordable. However, drought conditions in the south threaten the upcoming harvest, flooding has affected 285,000 people along the Zambezi river and cyclone Favio has affected almost 160,000 people in Inhambane, Sofala and Manica provinces. Water and sanitation assistance are needed in flood and cyclone-affected areas, as well as urgent seed provision for second-season planting.
- By July, food security conditions will likely deteriorate in southern and parts of central Mozambique. The first harvest is expected to fail in most areas, increasing food insecurity from April to June, and poor precipitation will lead to below-average second-season harvests starting in late July. Many households will rely on external assistance starting in August as a result. However, crop production in the central highlands and throughout northern Mozambique will be above average and prices will be affordable, leading to general food security in these regions.
- In the worst-case scenario, an abrupt end to an already poor rainy season will cause failure of the first-season crops and prevent any second-season production in southern and some central districts. Food prices will increase significantly and likely double by July, leading to high levels of household food insecurity. Malnutrition rates will increase as a result, and food assistance and water interventions will be necessary starting in July. Erratic rainfall and storms could cause localized levels of food insecurity in the north, but the region will still remain generally food secure.
Background
FEWS NET developed this food security outlook to support contingency and response planning efforts between March and July 2007. The analysis includes current estimated food security conditions as well as estimated food security conditions in July 2007 based on a most-likely scenario and a worst-case scenario. A food security assessment by the Technical Secretariat for Food Security and Nutrition (SETSAN) and its partners is planned for late March and April, and updated scenarios will be developed as new information is available.
Current food security situation
With the exception of localized areas in central and southern Mozambique affected by weather shocks, households are generally food secure throughout the country. Food is available in most markets, and prices remain affordable for most households, despite gradual seasonal increases. Additionally, many households have reserves from the good 2005/06 crop season, in which cereal production was 10 percent higher than the 2004/05 season and 16 percent greater than the five-year production average. The favorable rains during the 2005/06 growing season also led to above-average production of pulses (10 percent greater than 2004/05 and 23 percent greater than the five-year average) and cassava (14 percent above the 2004/05 season and 27 percent above the five-year average).
However, many households in inland Gaza and Inhambane and parts of Maputo provinces in the south are now, or are about to become, food insecure. Hot and dry conditions since the start of the normal rainy season in October 2006 have caused crop failure in many areas. Households normally begin harvesting green crops in January and the main harvest in March, and as a result of the crop failure, households are quickly expending their reserves from the 2005/06 harvest. Poor households with limited diversity in access to food and income will soon be forced to reduce consumption and rely on market purchases earlier than normal, and will have to employ negative coping strategies later in the year.
Severe floods in the Zambezi valley have affected up to 285,000 people in Tete, Manica, Sofala and Zambézia provinces in central Mozambique. Of this number, 163,000 lost their houses and crops and are now living in accommodation and resettlement camps, and 122,000 lost crops in the risk areas near the river, but their houses are safe in the highland areas. Relief operations are underway, but additional funding and response capacity are needed, particularly in water supply and sanitation assistance. The abundant moisture may be favorable for flood-recession agriculture, and urgent seed supply is recommended.
Cyclone Favio, which hit southern Mozambique on February 22, has affected almost 160,000 people in Inhambane, Sofala and Manica provinces. The cyclone destroyed homes and infrastructure and caused human deaths, and most affected households lost their food reserves, crops and fruit trees, which provide an important source of household income. Food distribution and non-food assistance, such as water, sanitation and infrastructure rehabilitation, are underway. Seed provision is recommended, particularly in areas that have experienced drought and where the conditions allow for second-planting season.